UBS predicts China will increase debt in 2019 to support the economy


To support the growth of the Chinese economy, China in 2019 will continue to increase debt, analysts at UBS Group predict. The aggregate financing index in China, according to their estimates, will grow this year by 12%, accelerating the pace compared to a 9.8% increase last year. At the same time, the forecast assumes a slowdown in growth of China’s nominal GDP to 8% from 9.7% while maintaining moderate inflation. Thus, the ratio of total debt to GDP in 2019 will again show growth. Despite the positive impact of growing debt on the rise of the economy and the stock market in the short term, this situation may affect investor sentiment. In January, the volume of new loans issued by Chinese banks reached a record level, the data of the People’s Bank of China showed.

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