Moody’s Analytics senior economist, Mark Zandi, told CNBC in an interview that the world economy could fall into recession if the United States and China did not sign a trade agreement in the next 3 months. He came to this conclusion based on a survey recently conducted by Moody’s among companies around the world. The survey showed the lowest level of trust of companies since 2009, when the financial crisis ended. Business sentiment may deteriorate further if a trade deal is not concluded between the United States and China. Companies will begin to reduce hiring, which will increase unemployment. According to the economist, only faith in further economic growth can help avoid a recession. No measures imposed by central banks can do this. Zandi considers Brexit without an agreement to be the second risk for the global economy. According to his estimates, the probability of “hard” Brexit is one to three.
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