Experts of the international rating agency Fitch calculated the likely losses for the global economy, the economies of the United States and China from the introduction of the US 25 percent duty on Chinese imports in the amount of 300 billion dollars. According to their estimates, this will lead to a slowdown in global economic growth by 0.4 percentage points, a similar weakening of the rise in US GDP and a slowdown in Chinese growth by 0.6 percentage points. Fitch predicts that global GDP will increase by 2.7% this year, slowing the rise to 2.4% next year. The forecast takes into account the response of the Chinese leadership in the form of a 50% increase in existing duties on goods from the United States in the amount of $100 billion and the introduction of new 25 percent duties on US imports in the amount of $20 billion. The development of an escalation of the trade conflict under this scenario will lead to an increase in import prices in both countries and a decrease in export volumes. As a result, the costs of companies will increase, while real wages will decrease.
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