The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects that trade duties, which in 2018 were introduced by the United States and China, will have a negative impact on the growth of world trade. Its pace by 2020 will decrease by 0.4 percentage points. At the end of last year, about half of both China’s exports to the United States and US exports to China came under increased tariffs. This will lead to the fact that economic growth in China and the United States will fall by 0.25% at the end of this year. Imports from both countries will fall by 0.75%. According to the OECD forecast, the rise in prices for imported goods will lead to the fact that inflation in the United States this year and next will increase by 0.2 percentage points. If the United States raises duties from 10% to 25% on Chinese exports worth $200 billion a year, then one should expect that GDP growth in China and the United States will decrease by 0.5% by the beginning of next year, and inflation in the United States will accelerate by 0.6%, and world trade will slow growth by 0.75%. The slowdown in the growth of the economies of the United States, China and world trade will be even greater if all Chinese exports fall under US duties of 25%.
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